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Midterm elections in the United States elect the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, and thousands of state legislative and executive offices. For all their magnitude and importance, these elections attract far less attention than presidential elections and have much听.听

But the November 8 2022 midterms, taking place in one of the most closely divided Congresses in history, could have far-reaching consequences.

Democrats currently hold the House of Representatives by a margin of just 10 seats out of 435. This is the narrowest House majority since听. They have no majority at all in the Senate, which is split 50-50, relying on the听.听

This makes it historically unlikely that the Democrats will hold on to the House. Since the Civil War, the president鈥檚 party has lost seats at every midterm election except for听听(the Great Depression),听听(Bill Clinton鈥檚 impeachment) and听听(the first election after the September 11 terrorist attacks).听

Republicans only need to gain five seats to take the House. This outcome is听听听but far from听, and Democrats can take some comfort from some听听听in special elections earlier in the year.

The Senate could be more favourable to Democrats, despite Republicans needing just one seat to flip it. Because only a third of Senate seats are contested at each election, one party often needs to defend far more of its seats than the other. This year Republicans are defending 20 seats compared to the Democrats鈥� 14, and a lot of these races are听.听

Under these circumstances, some forecasts slightly听听to retain control of the Senate. But given the tightness of key races, it could well come down to听that are听.

Each party wants voters to focus on different sets of issues. For Republicans, the job is straightforward. Voters often treat midterm elections as a听, even though the president is not on the ballot. While Biden鈥檚 approval ratings have recovered somewhat this year, they are still in the听, a historically听听for the president鈥檚 party.

听has dominated economic news for the last year and now there is talk of a听. Republicans have harnessed increasing disquiet over听,听听and听. With such advantageous conditions for Republicans, commentators as recently as June were predicting a听听election that would wipe out Democrats in both houses.

But developments over the American summer shifted the focus away from these problems. In June, the Supreme Court听, the almost 50-year-old ruling protecting abortion rights across the United States. Republican legislators in some states听, while Democrats听听in other states to protect rights that many had听.听

There was little doubt that politically, the abortion issue听听as Republicans staked out听positions. A ballot initiative in Kansas,听听saw 59% of the population vote to keep the state鈥檚听.

The Supreme Court鈥檚 decision reflected the听听installed by former President Donald Trump, and brightened the spotlight Democrats were already shining on the former president. The House Select Committee鈥檚 hearings into the January 6 riots, which are continuing, had a peak of just over听. They were presented with听听of Trump鈥檚 culpability in the violence.

In August, an听听found 21% of Americans rated 鈥渢hreats to democracy鈥� as the most important issue in the midterm elections, compared to 16% saying cost of living issues and 14% saying jobs and the economy.

It is hard to maintain the kind of attention these issues got over the summer.听听suggests that economic issues have once again become the central focus of attention, which will hurt Democrats. Republican candidates have quietly toned down their opposition to abortion and听听from their campaign websites.听

Biden has found it听听to advance a legislative agenda even with unified Democratic control of Congress. If Democrats lose either house, it will make almost any further major legislation essentially impossible because of the听听of both houses and the president.

If Republicans win the House of Representatives, they will quickly put an end to the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 riot. As Democrats move to subpoena Trump himself as part of that investigation,听听Kevin McCarthy, the likely speaker of a Republican controlled House, has already听听that the House would investigate Attorney-General Merrick Garland over the August FBI raid on Trump鈥檚 Mar-A-Lago residence.听听they should impeach Biden. The president will also be concerned that a majority Republican House听.

If Republicans win the Senate, Biden will face a lot of problems making听听that need to be confirmed by the Senate. In particular, he will probably lose any chance of making another appointment to the Supreme Court. The last time a Republican-majority Senate confirmed a Democratic President鈥檚 Supreme Court nominee was in听.

But the most significant consequences could be for the next presidential election in 2024. Trump has continued to claim that the 2020 election was fraudulently 鈥渟tolen鈥� from him, and听听across the 2022 midterms have echoed these claims. This was how many of them听, and their nominations. Some of these candidates are seeking statewide positions that could give them immense influence over the 2024 elections, especially the offices of听听and听, which have ultimate responsibility for听听in most states.

Much to Trump鈥檚 chagrin, no governor or secretary of state refused to certify the 2020 election results, despite the听. But this year鈥檚 Republican candidates in key swing states include Pennsylvania鈥檚 Doug Mastriano, who attended Trump鈥檚 January 6 rally and听听to overturn the state鈥檚 election results in 2020, Arizona鈥檚 Kari Lake, who has said she听听her state鈥檚 2020 result, and Nevada鈥檚 Jim Marchant, who听听of 鈥淎merica first secretary of state candidates鈥� to get Trump elected in 2024.

Even state legislative races in the 2022 midterms could have huge implications for the 2024 elections. The Supreme Court will soon hear a case that could听听the power of state legislatures in elections. It could remove the ability of state courts to review electoral boundaries and electoral rules set by legislatures, even if those conflict with state constitutions. Republicans currently have unified legislative control over states that account for听, a number which could expand or shrink this election.

These mid-terms show that no election in America is a discrete contest. State elections shape national elections. The institutional power that this year鈥檚 elections confer has major consequences for future elections. Although neither Biden nor Trump are on the ballot this year, they will be in voters鈥� minds as they go to the polls.

This article was first published in The Conversation as 听Associate Professor David Smith from the United States Studies Centre and Government and International Relations in the Faculty of Art and Social Sciences is an expert in American politics and foreign policy. Top image: Adobe Stock Images